US Open x La Liga
Real Madrid ML/Mbappe 1+ shot on goal/Sinner v Michelsen UNDER 4.5 sets (-156)
Ok, let me start off by saying this isn’t a pretty bet, it is three legs, and the odds aren’t great, but I love it. Real Madrid should rout Las Palmas, Mbappe has the stats to back up his leg and Sinner should dominate Michelsen. We have been in a minor rut, but I think this is just the play to right the ship.
Starting with Sinner/Michelsen because that is the first match to start this afternoon. The differences in these two players couldn’t be greater, Sinner ranking 1st on the ATP compared to Michelsen at 49th, Sinner with 15 career titles compared to Michelsen at 0, Sinner with a career W/L of 238-79 compared to Michelsen at 30-31 and Sinner with career prize money of $24 million compared to Michelsen at just over $1 million. Despite all those differences Michelsen is a youngster with a ton of talent, but I don’t think he will have enough to beat Sinner this afternoon.
These two faced off just once in their short careers with Sinner holding the edge winning 6-4, 7-5 just a few weeks ago in Cincinatti. Sinner dropped the first set of his US Open opening round but then found himself dominating the rest of the match winning 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 in sets 2-4. Sinner has gone 5 sets just three times all season and they have come against Medvedev 2x and Alcaraz 1x, two players who are levels above his opponent in Michelsen today. I think Sinner wins this in straight sets but taking the UNDER 4.5 to be safe.
Onto the second leg of this parlay. Real were coming into this season with expectations in the stratosphere and anything less than 5+ goals a game would be considered a failure to most fans, so I think we have to cut them some slack. They have started the season 1-1-0, with a draw coming in the season opener to Mallorca and a most recent 3-0 win against Real Valladolid. The numbers aren’t bad though, through two games they have managed a combined 14 shots on goal,30 total shots, and 13 corners while netting 4 goals. It is going to take some time for this team to gel together, but this isn’t a horrible start, I still have tons of faith in this team.
Unsure how Ancelotti will line them up but expecting Mbappe and Vini up front for sure with some combination of Valverde, Tchouameni, Modric, Rodrygo and Brahim behind them. As we all know Jude Bellingham will be out until the international break after picking up an injury to his leg, sucks to not have him but this team has more than enough guys to step up, I’m not overly worried.
Madrid now faces a Las Palmas team that has allowed a combined 4 goals, 10 shots on goal, and 28 total shots in their first two games. That is a lot of offense to two sub-par teams, and now they have to try and defend against the talent this Madrid side will bring. Madrid beat this Palmas team 2-0 and 2-1 in both matchups lasts season and I am expecting more of the same come Thursday afternoon.
Madrid gets their second win of the season and move closer to Barcelona at the top of the table.
Last but not least we have Mbappe to find the net at least once. In three games with Real Madrid thus far Mbappe has a combined 11 shots and 6 of them coming on goal. He also has at least one shot on goal in all three games, one against Atalanta, two against Mallorca, and three against Real Valladolid. His production has gone up in every game he has played in, which is super promising. I know he is playing with a different team this season and he is no longer the focal point like he was in PSG, but I am still going to revert back to some of his stats from last season because the sample size with Madrid is so small.
In 24 starts for PSG last season he had 115 total shots and 54 coming on goal, for an average of 4.79 shots and 2.25 shots on target per game. Like I said the environments between PSG and Real Madrid are completely different, so these stats hold minimal weight in my opinion but just wanted to show what he is capable of. I think Mbappe finally finds the back of the net for his first goal in La Liga. GL.
