8/28 US Open
Ben Shelton ML & Berrettini/Fritz both to win a set (-144)
Ok, so as many of you know my first two US Open bets have flopped. Rune got dog walked when I needed him to win just one set and Tsitsipas got upset in the first round of a major once again. Regardless we move on and we are moving on with a nice two leg parlay this afternoon. Backing Ben Shelton ML and Berrettini/Fritz both to win a set in their match tonight. Shelton plays at 3 pM and Berrettini/Fritz play at 9 PM.
Starting with Ben Shelton who is back in New York to try and make another run in this tournament after losing in the quarter finals to Djokovic last year. The odds for this match are heavily skewed in Sheltons direction and for good reason. He is 15 years younger than Bautista and owns the one head to head matchup between the two. These two faced at this year's Australian Open back in January and Shelton won 6-2, 7-6 and 7-5.
A winner of just 1 of his L6 matches I am not expecting much out the Spaniard this afternoon. Unfortunately I think his US Open dreams will be crushed on the first day. At just 15-16 on the year and playing an opponent with an average ranking of 90.75 I don't think he stands a chance against a young, hard serving player like Shelton who also happens to rank 13th on the ATP.
Shelton should get this thing done in three sets and move onto the next round with relative ease.
Moving onto the leg with odds closer to even, both players to win a set. When I saw this match posted I wasn’t really sure what to think of it, Fritz is the better player and should be favored to win but Berrettini is a little underrated in my opinion. Once ranking 6th on the ATP two years ago he has since fell in the rankings due to injuries and poor play. I still have faith in the Italian to get back to his former self and that is why I am backing this to be a closer match than some may think.
These two have played three times in their careers with Fritz winning every single match, and also winning them fairly convincingly. Winning 5-7, 7-6, 6-2 in 2019, 6-4, 6-3 in 2021 and most recently 7-6, 7-6 in 2023. After looking at this history I got a little nervous for my bet but the remembered what Berrettini is capable of. Making it to the quarterfinals in the French Open 1x, US Open 2x, semi finals in the Australian Open 1x and US Open 1x and the finals at Wimbledon 1x. Granted this has all come in 2022 or prior but like I talked about I think those injuries derailed him slightly because he missed the 2023 French Open, 2024 Australian Open and French Open.
Berrenttini did look good in round one of the US Open winning 7-6, 6-2 and 6-3, I know Fritz is a massive bump up in competition but this gives me some hope for his future. I am not saying that he is going to win this match, I just need him to win one set and I think he is more than capable of doing such. Fritz has been good but he hasn’t been unstoppable dropping a set in 5 of his L9 matches dating back to Wimbledon. I think we are going to get a really competitive match tonight with both players winning at least one set, and this thing perhaps going the distance. GL.
