Saturday Premier League
Arsenal ML/Man City ML (-120)
Backing two of the best teams in the Premier League for a parlay always seems fitting. You have the highest of hopes for both of them to win because thier quality is so good but its “football” and anything can happen. Let’s hope both can play to their expectations tomorrow and take care of business.
Starting with Arsenal because they are the first game on the slate. The Gunners face Brighton team that has started out on fire, winning their first two games and outscoring their opponents 5-1. The thing that stands out most to me is they are taking advantage of the quality chances they are getting. In the first game against Everton, they scored 3 goals off just 5 shots on goal. Similarly in the second game against Manchester United they scored 2 goals off the same 5 shots on goal. They are making the most out of their offensive possessions, this worries me slightly because I think they will get very few chances aginst a good Arsenal defense, but I think they are do for some regression.
With no new major transfers over the summer this Brighton team is over performing from what they were last season. They finished 12th in the league last year with a total 55 goals scored across 38 fixtures, for an average of 1.4 per game. Based off the numbers from their first two games they are on pace for 95 goals, an average of 2.5 per game. Could it be the new coach and new scheme allowing them to be more productive in the final third? Maybe, but I don’t buy it. I think they will be brought down to earth against an Arsenal defense that was the best in the EPL last season and has allowed 0 goals and just 6 shots on goal this year.
Arsenal has the offense to take advantage of a Brighton team that allowed the 10th most goals in the EPL last season (1.63 per game) and the defense to shut down their “high flying” offense (I put that in quotes because I think they have just been lucky). The Gunners get another three points at home.
Leicester/Aston Villa Both Teams to Score (-152)
I think this is my favorite bet of the day, I get to back two teams that have bad back lines but love to score the ball. As I have discussed on here before, Leicester is coming off a season in the Championship where they scored 89 goals for an average of 1.93 per game. I know the Premier League is no Championship (Championship is the league below the EPL in English soccer, the minors), but these are encouraging numbers when it comes to the style of play from this team. Leicester has also found the back of the net and conceded in both Premier League games this season.
I talked about the Leicester offense but now I want to touch on the defense, the thing that could be the downfall of this team. After allowing just 41 goals last season (0.89 per game) they have allowed 1 to Tottenham and 2 to Fulham last week. That doesn’t tell the whole story though, Tottenham had 62% of possession. 15 total shots and 7 on goal. Fulham had 19 shots and 6 of them came on goal. At least in these first two games, teams are getting decent offensive production against this Leicester back line, and I love it for the sake of this bet.
In what has been a slower start to the year for Aston Villa, winning against West Ham 2-1 and losing to Arsenal 0-2 I think this is a get right game for them. We saw last year their ability to score the ball, scoring 76 total goals for an average of 2 per game. They lose Douglas Luiz in their midfield, but I still think Ollie Watkins can carry the weight of this offense, as he did last season. I know they failed to score against Arsenal last week but as mentioned above they have the best defense in the Premier League, it is always going to be difficult to net one against them, no matter who you are.
Lastly, after conceding once to West Ham and twice to Arsenal I think Leicester will do enough to find the back of the net at least once tomorrow morning. If you want a little extra I do also like Aston Villa ML in this, thinking about making another bet as a matter of fact, but this is all for now.
Bukayo Saka/Ollie Watkins both 1+ shot on target (-141)
Last but not least we have a little player prop to end the Saturday slate. Backing arguably the two best players on each side to find the frame at least once.
Strating with Saka who has 6 total shots and 4 of them on goal through the first two games this season. He was last year and remains the focal point of this Arsenal offense, and for good reason. Saka finished last season with 109 shots, 37 shots on goal and 16 goals. Good for 3.11 shots per game, 1.05 shots on target and 0.51 goals per game. He will be facing a Brighton team that allowed an 8th worst 55 goals last season, a defense that I really think he and Arsenal as a team can take advantage of. Lastly, Saka has a shot on target in 7 of the L7 Premier League games dating back to last season and I think he makes it 8 tomorrow.
Moving on to Ollie Watkins who was a must bet every game to have a shot on target last seeason. Starting this season off a little slow with just 2 shots and 1 coming on target thus far, I think he will find his groove soon. Watkins had a combined 109 shots, and 46 on target last season, 2.94 shots and 1.24 shots on target per game. Despite his slow start I think this is a great right game for him against a poor Leicester defense that allowed 15 shots to Tottenham and 19 shots to Fulham in back to back weeks.
Also, in those first two games Leicester allowed 3 shots to Dominic Solanke of Tottenham and 9 shots to Rodrigo Muniz of Fulham. Both of which play the same position as Watkins. I like both of these guys to get a few good looks at goal tomorrow. GL.
Don’t forget, both of these guys take penalties for their teams, so an extra chance if that happens to come into play.
