Ravens/Chiefs Player Props
Derrick Henry OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Henry has played 6 career games against the Chiefs and has rushed for a combined 672 yards, an average of 112 yards per game. Last season the Chiefs allowed an average of 113.2 rush yards per game and allowed top running backs to eclipse this number of 63.5 in 9 of 21 games, in both the regular and postseason.
David Montgomery rushed for 74 yards on 21 carries, Joshua Kelly rushed for 75 yards on 7 carries, Javonte Williams rushed for 85 yards on 27 carries, Raheem Mostert 85 yards on 12 carries, D’Andre Swift 76 yards on 12 carries, Josh Jacobs 110 yards on 20 carries, AJ Dillion 73 yards on 18 carries, Joe Mixon 65 yards on 21 carries, and Christain McCaffery in the Super Bowl rushed for 80 yards on 22 carries.
Henry is coming off a season with the Titans where he rushed for 1,167 YDS an average of 68.6 yards per game, just above our number tonight. Henry also had 10 games last season where he rushed for 63 or more yards. I would have liked to see this number be higher but it’s tough to feed your running back when you’re always playing from behind as the Titans were last season. Henry will get a boost playing for the #1 rushing offense in the league in Baltimore, that averaged over 150+ rush yards per game last season. Lastly, the Ravens had 9 games last year where they had a player rush for more than 64 yards in a single game.
Henry should be able to attack this KC run defense if he is given adequate volume from the coaching staff. I like Baltimore to rely heavily on Henry tonight.
Xavier Worthy Longest Reception OVER 20.5 (-115)
Kind of counterintuitive that I am backing Mahomes UNDER yards but Worthy OVER yards (in a sense) but once again I have to trust the numbers.
I know college is different, but he had a reception of 21+ yards in 12 of 14 games last season at Texas (85.7%). Although playing a tough Ravens secondary as noted above, he now joins a Chiefs team with the best QB in the league, and a QB that loves throwing deep.
The Chiefs had 50 completions of 21 or more yards last season and had a completion of 21+ yards in 20 of 21 games. The deep ball will be there tonight for Kansas City we just need Worthy to be on other end of it.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 269.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Backing Mahomes UNDER pass yards tonight and backing a number that he went under in 7 of 20 games last year including playoffs. Also, Mahomes averaged 261.7 yards per game, just slightly under our number of 269.5 tonight. I know it's not drastic, but with Mahomes hitting under this number in less than half of the games last season (35%) I like our odds. Especially against a Ravens defense that I will discuss shortly.
When these two teams faced off in the AFC Championship last January, Mahomes completed 30 of 39 pass attempts and still fell short of 269 pass yards, he finished with 241. I know the Chiefs made some advancements at the receiver position in the offseason, signing Hollywood Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy but Brown will miss tonight's game with a shoulder injury, and this will be Worthy's first ever NFL game. Later in the season I would expect more from these two but as of now it is really tough to gage their impacts.
Lastly, I want to touch on the Ravens defense, the real selling point of this bet for me. Including the playoffs, they allowed opposing QBs to throw for more than 269 yards just twice all season, holding them to under this number in 17 of 19 games (89.4%). Their pass defense was on another level last year, allowing a 6th best 191.9 pass yards per game.
I know its Mahomes, I know it's the season opener in Arrowhead so he has the potential to go off, but I can't fade the numbers here. I hate this bet, but I have to trust the facts. GL.
Zay Flowers OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Last season Flowers had 50+ REC yards in 11 of 18 games including 115 yards in the game against the Chiefs. An average of 56.3 receiving yards per game. Also, he had 60+ receiving yards in 4 of the L6 games to end last season, seeming to find his stride at the end of the year. Flowers is undoubtably the #1 WR in Baltimore, with Andrews back healthy and Henry in the backfield, it should open up more 1 on 1 opportunities for him.
I know with Andrews healthy he will steal some targets from Flowers, but I am good with that. I still think Flowers will get enough good looks to eclipse this number, averaging 6 targets per game last year and double-digit targets in 5 of 18 games.
Draftkings Odds Boost: Henry or Kelce to Score 1+ TD (+100)
This was an odds boost provided by DraftKings, they would only let me bet a $10 max bet but figured I would share this in here anyways. Henry scored in 9 of 17 games last season and had a combined 12 TDs. Kelce on the other hand, although having a down year with just 5 TDs he did score in the AFC Championship last season
At odds of +100 this was a no brainer bet for me, I wouldn't be surprised if both Henry and Kelce find the endzone tonight.
