Ravens at Chiefs
Ravens +3 (-118)
We get an AFC Championship rematch, and I couldn't be more excited. In my opinion the Ravens should have won that game, but it was a combination of bad offense on their part and outstanding defense for the Chiefs. Lamar and his boys get a chance to avenge that bad loss in prime time to kick off the 2024/25 season.
If we look back to the AFC Championship it was a pass fest between both teams, Mahomes was 30-39 for 241 YDS and Lamar was 20-37 for 262 YDS. A massive criticism was that the Ravens didn't run the ball, just 6 total rushing attempts for their running backs. They averaged 31.8 rush attempts per game in the 2023/24 regular season and had just 16 in that game. They also averaged 156.5 rush YDS per game while totaling just 81 against the Chiefs. You could say it was a great game by the Chiefs run defense, because on paper they allowed 113 rush yards per game, but I think I have to give the discredit to the Baltimore coaching staff and their poor play calling. Regardless that was last year, this is a new year and it's time to move on.
The Ravens signed Derrick Henry in the offseason, and I think he is going to be massive to their offensive success. Starting with the surface level stuff, the combination of him and Lamar in the backfield will force defenses to play more players in the box leaving Andrews and Flowers with more 1 on 1 looks. Having Lamar and Edwards/Hill in the backfield is one thing but adding Henry is a different animal.
Although 30 years of age Henry still had an incredible season last year. 280 carries (1st in the league), 1,167 rushing yards (2nd in the league), and 12 TDs (7th in the league). He now joins forces with the #1 rushing team from last season in the Ravens. I'm very excited for him this year and I think he will be a game changer for Baltimore.
I talked about why the Ravens should have won the AFC Championship and why I think they will win tonight but let me discuss the flip side of the coin. Things that make me worried about the Chiefs.
Mahomes survived last season with three wide receivers that weren't ideal. You could argue that Rice was a WR1 at the end of last season but besides his surge in the second half Mahomes didn't have much help. Mahomes now gets offseason additions of Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy from Texas, two absolute speedsters. If we have seen anything in the past with Tyreek Hill, Mahomes loves the deep ball to the fast guy.
Thankfully for us (not for him) Hollywood Brown has been ruled out for tonight's opener due to a shoulder injury, leaving just Rice and Worthy to contain. I believe the Ravens can stop the KC run, they can contain Travis Kelce (hopefully, he went for 11 REC & 115 YDS in the AFC Championship) but it's all about these two receivers in my eyes. If they can't get good coverage on these guys Mahomes will pick them apart.
Hoping for another performance from the Baltimore secondary like they had in January where they held Rice to just 8 REC for 46 yards. I like the Ravens to win this outright and get revenge from last season on the back of Henry. GL.
