Packers/Eagles Player Prop
Saquan Barkley OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Backing Barkley in his first game as an Eagle to top his rushing prop tonight. We saw Derrick Henry in his first game as a Raven fall short of his rushing prop by about 20 yards in a very similar position, but I think Philadelphia will rely on the run game a bit more than Baltimore. Not to mention Saquan is a better running back than Henry, hot take but it’s true.
Take these numbers with a grain of salt because the Giants were so bad last season, but Barkley averaged 68.7 rush yards per game and went over tonight’s number of 65 in 7 of those 14 games (50%). Hitting at 50% isn’t great but when we are talking about the Giants offense compared to the Eagles it is very comforting.
Last season the Giants averaged 110.2 rushing yards per game, 4.1 rushing yards per attempt and 454 rushing attempts. Compared to the Eagles who averaged 128.8 rushing yards per game, 4.3 yards per attempt and 510 rushing attempts. Saquan is now playing for a team that has a better offensive line (probably the best in the league), averages more yards per game, attempts per game and yards per attempt.
Lastly, when the Packers played the Giants last season Barkley went for 86 rushing yards on 20 carries (4.3 yards per attempt). If Saquan gets his touches tonight, he should have zero trouble getting above this number.
Devonta Smith OVER 58.5 REC Yards (-120)
For the second prop bet tonight I am backing Smitty OVER receiving yards because one, I think he is a beast and two, because I think Jaire Alexander will be shadowing AJ Brown.
Last season Smith surpassed his number of 59 in 9 of 17 games (52.9%) and passed that same number in 7 of the L10 games including a 149-yard night in the last game of the season against the Buccaneers. Of course, not having AJ Brown on the field helps but I still think Smtih can get a fair target share with Brown lined up as well. Secondly, Smtih averaged 62.7 yards per game last season, slightly above our number needed for tonight.
My main reasoning for backing Smith was because I think the new defensive coordinator for Green Bay will change some things up from last season. Jaire Alexander is the Packers best defensive back and last year he just stayed on one side of the field no matter who he was covering. I think Jeff Hafley will have Alexander shadowing the opposing team’s number one receiver for most of the game, allowing Devonta Smith more opportunities in coverage. Granted, this is just a personal theory, and it may not be remotely true, but I trust my instincts.
Even if Smith gets unfavorable coverage, I still like him to eclipse this number tonight. GL.
