CFB x US Open
Texas ML/Jannik Sinner ML (-127)
Got a ton of energy this morning coming off a really good night in the NFL and US Open which I am super stoked about. I write these articles because I enjoy it and I like helping people win money/make more educated bets, so I get hype when the picks I send out win. Anyways let’s get into this parlay I have lined up. Backing Texas ML, who play today at 12:00 PM EST and backing Jannik Sinner who plays tomorrow at 1:00 PM EST. We will need some patience for this one to pay but it will be worth it.
Starting with Texas ML, they are taking on the defending national champs in Michigan, on the road, but a ton has changed with this Michigan team since last year’s title win. Michigan lost staters all over the field including: QB JJ McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, TE AJ Barner, WR Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson, six offensive lineman with starting experience, three starting defensive linemen, two starting linebackers, two starting defensive backs and the most notable their head coach John Harbaugh.
This is a completely different Michigan team that won the national championship and explains why Texas is a 7 point favorite on the road. Texas on the other hand is bringing back a combined 15 starters from last season, the third highest in the league. They do lose starting RB Jonathon Brooks and Xavier Worthy to the NFL but bring back staring QB Quinn Ewers which is massive.
Texas is coming off a 52-0 win against Colorado State in week 1 and is looking to build on that success today in Ann Harbor, a very winnable game in my opinion. I already talked about how much has changed in that Michigan locker room but they didn’t look too hot in their season opener last weekend. Despite the 20 point win against Fresno St, Michigan only threw for 118 Yds on 15-25 passing. This is a major concern for the Wolverines and starting QB Davis Warren. Another concern is their TE Colston Loveland lead the team in receptions and receiving yards. This was the first game of the season so maybe they were just getting their feet under them, but the numbers aren’t promising.
Riding with Texas this afternoon due to the massive turnover on the Michigan roster and quality that Texas is bringing back this season. I like the Longhorns by 7+ today, playing it safe and taking them on the money line even though I think they cover the spread.
Onto the US Open, where I think it will be a close match but Sinner will find himself lifting the trophy.
As an American it pains me to fade Taylor Fritz but I think it is the right move. With the pending Sinner future I have at +140 you would think I would take Fritz to win and hedge my bet slightly, but no I believe Sinners quality will be too much for the American. A major factor that I think a ton of people will over look is the physical fitness of the two, Sinner played Friday afternoon and beat Draper in three sets compared to Fritz who played long into the night and went five sets with Tiafoe. Sinner’s body is way less taxed and he will have more time to recover.
Something else I want to touch on is Sinner has dropped just two sets this entire tournament, he has won 4 of 6 matches in straight sets. Fritz on the other hand had dropped a set in 3 of his L3 matches. Not saying those stats hold a ton of weight just something I wanted to mention in regards to their history. Both players have looked good leading up to this match but I think Sinner has been more dominate.
Fritz is a hell of a player and someone who will definitely challenge Sinner but I think Jannik’s quality is just too good at the moment. He looked very good against Draper yesterday afternoon and he is the better player of the two by a decent margin. I think Fritz may be able to steal a set from Sinner but at the end of the day I think Sinner’s shot making and the lack of rest for Fritz will be his downfall.
Sinner wins his second career major and his second major of the year. GL.
