NFL Week 1

NFL Sundays are finally back and I couldn't be more excited. I probably have more money wagered than I would like to admit but I feel confident in our picks, let's get into them. Also don't forget about Sinner ML pending, he plays at 1:00 PM, you may be able to parlay him with an NFL ML wager, just some thoughts.

Titans +4 (-112)

Backing the Titans this afternoon solely because I want to fade the Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams. I am more than excited to watch him ball but even with the weapons they have there's no way I can back a rookie QB, making his NFL debut at this number.

Yes they do Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and D'Andre Swift but 4 points is just too much in my eyes. The Titans lost Derrick Henry but picked up Tony Pollard and Clavin Ridley in the offseason, two players that I believe can make an impact.

Bears are the better team currently and will probably be the better team at the end of the season but as mentioned above, I can't back a rookie QB getting this many points in his opening start. Not to mention Levis has a ton of potential and had a year under his belt to develop. I like Tennessee to keep this one close.

Calvin Ridley 50+ REC Yards (-132)

Already discussed my reasoning for taking Titans ML but now I am going to add a player prop from that game, a line that I really like. I think Ridley and Levis are going to have a prosperous season together.

With Hopkins on his way out as he gets older in age I think Ridley will develop into the Titans clear no.1 receiver as they really don't have anyone else. Ridley finished last season with the Jaguars with a stat line of 1,016 REC yards, 76 receptions and 8 TD's, really good numbers in my opinion. Ridley also had 50+ receiving yards in 8 of 17 games, just slightly under 50%.

I know those numbers aren't convincing but he was fighting for targets with Christian Kirk, he won't have to do that in Tennessee because as mentioned earlier Hopkins isn't much of a threat. Lastly, he is playing the Bears defense that allowed an 8th worst 237.8 passing yards per game.

I like Levis and Ridley to get off on the right foot in Chicago.

Falcons ML/Kyle Pitts 25+ REC Yards (-112)

Wanted to back the Falcons straight up but the line was just too much for me so decided to parlay them with Pitts OVER receiving yards.

Pitts has had a few down years since entering the league in my opinion, but he has so much potential and I am excited to see him with a decent QB in Kirk Cousins. He finished last season with just 667 REC yards, 53 receptions and 3 Tds, really bad numbers for a player with his type of talent. The good news is, as bad as his numbers were he finished with 25+ receiving yards in 11 of 14 games last season, this is a no brainer for me. Not only that but Kirk is coming from a Vikings offense where their top TE in TJ Hockenson finished with 25+ yards in 14 of 15 games. Kirk loves to sling the ball to his tight ends and I am excited to see what he can do with Pitts.

Onto the more challenging leg of this parlay, Falcons moneyline. After fishing last season 7-10 and losing 4 of their L5 games the Falcons are getting a ton of love from sportsbooks. They did fire their HC, and acquire a new QB in Kirk Cousins, so the future is definitely looking good for them. Only thing that worries me is they are getting this many points against a really good Steelers team, a Steelers team that made the playoffs and made them with a disaster at quarterback. The Steelers now acquire Russel Wilson and Justin Fields in the offseason, two guys that worry me a little.

Regardless of who the Steelers have under center I think the Falcons will be better than some people think and are able to squeak out a win, at home, in week 1.

Trevor Lawrence OVER 252.5 Passing Yards (-120)

In what has the possibility to be a shootout in south Florida I like Lawrence to keep the ball in the air in order to try and keep up with Miami. With the highest projected total of the afternoon slate and the second highest of the week, I think we are going to see some points in this one.

Last season the Jaguars averaged 242 pass yards per game, just sightly under the number for this afternoons game. Lawrence also eclipsed this number in 8 of 15 games last season and in 6 of the L8 games of the season. Jacksonville also added Gabe Davis from Buffalo and drafted Brain Thomas Jr., adding even more weapons for Lawrence to throw to.

I know Miami has a decent pass defense, allowing just over 220 yards per game but as mentioned earlier I think he will have to throw the ball a ton this afternoon to try and stay in this game.

Texans ML (-155)

In what should be one of the best games of the weekend I am backing Houston to keep their run from last season going. The Texans finished last season 10-7 with a wild card playoff win against the Browns before losing to the Ravens in the divisional round. Stroud looked awesome and now they've added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to their offense, two guys who can take this team to the next level.

They split last seasons matchups against the Colts, losing in week 2 but beating them in week 17. The Colts on the other hand finished 9-8 but lost their star QB Anthony Richardson after week 4 due to a season ending injury. He is what gets me worried for this matchup, he super dynamic and can really destroy this Houston defense with his arm and his legs. The combination of him, Taylor and Pittman can really do some damage.

Regardless I am rolling with Houston and hoping they can replicate that late season magic with the new additions to their offense.

Justin Jefferson OVER 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I think this may be my favorite bet of the slate today. After week 9 when Kirk Cousins had a season ending injury Jefferson was catching passes from Dobbs and Mullens, two guys you never want under center if your a wide receiver. Despite those struggles at QB, Jefferson still went over 82 yards in 3 of 5 games to end the season (he was injured in weeks 6-13). Jefferson also went over 82 yards in 7 of 10 games on the year.

Jefferson will now be catching balls from Sam Darnold, former 1st round pick and levels above both Mullens and Dobbs. So if he can put up 80+ with those guys throwing him the ball he should be able to do 100+ with Darnold under center. He will now be facing a Giants defense that allows 229 passing yards per game, offering plenty of opportunity for Jefferson to run wild.

Keon Coleman 25+ Receiving Yards (-160)

Going to make this one short and sweet as this is his first ever NFL game and we don't really have much data to go from.

My expectations for Coleman this season are through the roof, IDK why but he had a great year at Florida State last season and now joins a Bills offense that loves to throw the ball. Not only that but Josh Allen lost his top two receivers to free agency last season, leaving a perfect opportunity for Coleman to become Josh Allens #1 target.

I know they are calling for 15 MPH winds during game time but 25 yards isn't a ton and I expect Allen to have enough pass attempts for Coleman to have a great chance at surpassing this number. Coleman is listed as the teams #2 receiver on the depth chart, so Keon should be on the field for a ton of snaps and getting a ton of looks from Allen. I love this play and don't think we will see a line this low again.

James Cook 60+ Rushing Yards (-120)

I already discussed the wind issues in Buffalo (15 MPH, with 30 MPH gusts), so we already know that throwing the ball through the air could be limited at times. Leaving a perfect opportunity for James Cook to go off on the ground.

The Bills are a 6.5 point favorite, meaning they should win this game by a decent margin and run the ball a lot on the second half due to trying to hold their lead. They also are facing a Cardinals defense that allowed the most rushing yards last season at 143.2 yards per game, just asking opposing teams to run the ball.

Lastly, Cook went over 60 rushing yards in 8 of 17 games last season and in 2 of the L4. He should see a ton of carries this afternoon, and break off some decent runs against this horrible rush defense.

Buccaneers ML/White 40+ Rush Yards (-125)

Similar to what I did with the Falcons wager I am doing the same thing here with the Buccaneers.

After finishing last season 9-8 and winning a playoff game I have some decent hopes for Tampa Bay this season and have some hopes of them blowing out Washington in week 1. I know Washington drafted Daniels but a rookie QB playing for a team that finished 4-13 should not be this close of an underdog to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay should be at least a 7 point fav at home but I don't care I will take advantage of that.

White rushed for 40+ rushing yards in 10 of 18 games last season and in 8 of the L10. He now faces a Washington defense that allowed the 6th most rushing yards to running backs at 126.8 yards per game. I love both of these legs and both should be easy winners. GL.