9/6 US Open

Fritz ML/Sinner ML (-170)

As I aways say, I am going to start off by mentioning that the odds for this aren’t great, I know, but this just makes sense.

Starting with the earlier match between Sinner and Draper, this is between two guys that have been on some sort of run during this year’s US Open. Sinner has dropped just two sets through 5 matches and Draper has yet to drop a set, winning all five matches in straight sets. Which is insane. Unfortunately for Draper, he now faces his hardest opponent to date, who happens to be the #1 player in the word.

With just one match played between the two in their career, I can’t really use that to justify my claims because it was played so long ago, and both were so young. For context these two faced off in 2021 at Queens Club with Draper winning 7-6, 7-6. Draper was 19 and Sinner was 20 years old, a lot has changed since that match.

Both players are in incredible form and with super slim head-to-head data to choose from we really have to make a judgment call on this one in terms of picking a winner. I know Draper hasn’t dropped a set all tournament, but Sinner is the world no.1, has looked really good up until this point and is simply the better tennis player in my eyes. I like Sinner to win this in four sets. NOTE: I do have a Sinner future pending, so may be slightly biased in that aspect but I think he still dominates Draper.

Onto the match I am super excited for, the first all American, US Open semifinals since 2008. I wish this wasn’t on at the same time as the NFL game, but it is what it is. I love Francis but I have to fade him tonight, I think Taylor has his number.

Tiafoe and Fritz have faced each other competitively seven times with Fritz holding the head-to-head at 6-1. Not only has Fritz won 85.7% of their matches but he has also won the L6, with his only loss coming in their match in 2016. Not only that but three of Fritz L4 wins have come in straight sets, he’s not only beating Tiafoe, but he isn’t dropping sets.

Taylor Fritz’s form has been immaculate throughout this tournament as well, dropping a combined two sets through five rounds. One set to #8 Rudd and another in a tie break to #3 Zverev, other than those two he’s been untouchable.

I really want this to be a good match, and I debated backing both players to win a set, but I think there is a real chance that Fritz wins this in three sets. I like a Sinner/Fritz final on Sunday afternoon. GL.