NFC Championship x CBB
49ers ML/Houston ML (-118)
49ers 6:30 PM EST kickoff
Houston 9:00 PM EST Tipoff tomorrow.
I had the Ravens in the first game and now I am backing Niners ML in the playoff which I hate doing because there is always some level of fuckery in the NFL playoffs by the refs. But it's whatever we'll ride. I think the offenses are comparable but it's the Lions secondary that worries me and ultimately leaned me to fading them. They allowed 408 yards of total offense, 349 passing yards, 3 pass TDs, and 147 yards on 8 catches to Mike Evans against the Bucs last week. This Niners offense of CMC, Kittle, Deebo and Aiyuk should feast against this secondary allowing 416 YPG, 358 pass YPG, and back-to-back 350+ pass yards in the playoffs (Baker was 1 yard short I'm counting it). The Niners offense is head and shoulders above the Bucs just in talent and play calling ability. I know the 49ers survived a scare against the Packers and some may argue they should have lost but their offense should have a bounce back game tomorrow verse this terrible Lions secondary. CMC most likely won't get much on the ground so it's going to be up to Purdy and his receivers to get this job done.
Throwing in some college basketball for the second leg of this parlay, once the line for Houston came out, I knew I liked them to win outright and thought the Niners was a perfect team to pair them with. After starting out the year 11-2 Texas has hit a wall in the L7 games going just 3-4 with losses to West Virginia, UFC, Texas Tech and BYU. In those four games against West Virginia, UFC, Texas Tech and BYU Houston is 4-0 with an average win margin of 20.2 points. Also, in those four games against those teams Houston is averaging 74.5 PPG and allowing just 54.7 PPG. Additionally, in the only two games that Houston lost all year it was a 4-point loss on the road against Iowa State who is 13-1 at home and a 1-point loss on the road against TCU who shot 53% from three and had 16 more free throw attempts. Houston is the better team in this game and certainly has the better record to show for it but the only thing that worries me are the home and away splits for each team. Houston who is praised for having one of the best defenses in the country is far worse on the road, allowing 61 PPG compared to just 47 PPG at home. Their offensive production also drops slightly, averaging 10 PPG less on the road, 67 PPG compared to 77 PPG on their home court. If Houston is able to manage these splits and get closer to their average, they will have a great chance at winning this game. I know I am backing Houston but if you are still on the fence don’t forget the only two true road tests Houston has had this year were against Iowa State and TCU, which they lost both. Good luck if tailing, go Cougs.
Record: 7-6
