Marquette/Villanova

Marquette +2.5 (-118)

Woke up this morning to see Marquette as an underdog to 11-9 Villanova and didn’t quite understand it, only thing I could think of is Kam Jones being listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Jones left the game on Sunday against Seton Hall after playing just 5 minutes. Regardless of Kam Jones status there is no way I can bet against Marquette as an underdog. Marquette is 4-0 in their L4 games with an average win margin of 11.2 PPG, including a 13 win against Villanova on 1/15. In that 1/15 matchup Villanova shot 43% from three and made 14 threes, 12% better than their yearly average of 32%. Also, Villanova’s leading scorer in that game was Mark Armstrong with a season high 24 points, but he has only scored more than 10 points in three games all year.

Another why I think this line is so low is because even though Villanova has just 1 win in their L6 games they have had some tough matchups. On the road against #17 Marquette, at home against #1 UConn, and a double OT loss against Butler. This Nova team is better than their record indicates but still not good enough to be almost a pick’em against Marquette, even at home.

The only worry I have tonight is Kam Jones was Marquette’s leading scorer with 22 points in the matchup against Nova on 1/15. Would I like to have Jones on the court, absolutely but I think Marquette has enough depth to make up for his production. For example, when he went down in the first 5 minutes against Seton Hall over the weekend, the team stepped up. Ighodaro has 21 points (avg. 14.6), Joplin has 20 points (avg. 10.6), Mitchell has 13 points (avg. 7.8) and they were able to get 14 points from the bench with majority of the production coming from Ben Gold with 9 points, 6 rebounds.

There is no question that Marquette is a better team with Kam Jones on the floor, but I think they have enough depth and are a much better overall team to beat Villanova tonight. GL.

Record: 8-6