Brentford/Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.5 (-174)
This is leg 1/2.
Backing Palace this morning in what should be the less exciting of the two Premier League games scheduled for Sunday (I suppose Chelsea/City should bring more fireworks, but we never know).
In a game where I was debating taking Crystal Palace ML or draw not bet I decided to play it safe once again and back them via the spread at +0.5. I know the odds are much more generous if you back them ML at +190 or draw no bet at +115 but I feel comfortable paying a little extra to get them at this number. I do think they will win outright but first game of the year and playing without their best offensive player from a year ago could bring a slow start in the front half.
As I just mentioned Palace is without Michael Olise who was transferred to Bayern Munich over the summer, he was the best option for Palace in the final third last year. He and Eze really caused some problems in the last seven games of the season. I still think Palace will be alright with Eze and Mateta up front, it won’t bring the same creativity that Olise brought but I do believe these two will have success this season.
Crystal Palace finished last season on a high note, winning 6 of their L7 games and drawing the other one. They beat Liverpool, Manchester United, West Ham, Newcastle, Wolves and Aston Villa all in the months of April and May. I have really high hopes for this team this season even after losing Olise.
They now face a Brentford side that was little better in the second half of the year after getting Toney back from suspension but still nothing to praise. Going 10-9-19 in the 23/24’ season finishing 16th in the league and just two spots off relegation (they were 13 points off relegation but still in fact two spots). Having Toney in the lineup will for sure help especially after a little confidence boost in the Euros scoring in the penalty shootout but other than him I don’t really have nothing notable on this Bee’s team.
As I have mentioned a hundred times in the past couple days we are early in the season so we never know what each team has changed over the summer until we are a couple games in. My handicap for this game is consistent on how each team finished last season and what personnel moves they have made over the summer. Palace was the better team all of last year and was one of the best teams in the EPL at the end of last season.
Brentford ranked 7th in the EPL last year in goals, conceding 65 total goals for an average of 1.7 per match. Palace on the other hand ranked 15th, allowing 58 goals for an average of 1.5 per match. Honestly not much better but still a slight edge for the visitors this morning.
I like Palace to win this game outright and draw at worst. Brentford starts off the year with another loss. GL.
