Bills/Dolphins Player Props
Josh Allen OVER 244.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Was doing some late night digging into this game and found some stats that were equivalent to finding a gold mind in my opinion. When these two teams faced off last season Josh Allen threw for 320 yards (21-25) in the week four matchup at home and 359 yards (30-38) in the week 18 matchup in Miami. Allen was super efficient in both games, leading to 300+ passing yards in each.
Granted in both of these games he had Diggs and Davis to throw to, who account for a combined for 87 yards in the first game and 181 yards in the second game. Allen was still able to spread the ball around and get yards from other receivers but not having these two guys on the field Thursday night will hurt him slightly.
Despite not having Diggs or Davis I still have trust in Shakir, Kincaid and rookie Keon Coleman to get the job done. Shakir had 6 receptions for 105 yards and Kincaid had 7 receptions for 84 yards in the week 18 game against Miami last season. Additionally, Coleman had 4 catches for 51 yards on Sunday against the Cardinals in his first ever NFL game. The Bills do still have some play makers to get the job done for Allen.
Lastly, the Dolphins are a high scoring team, leading the league in points per game last season at 29.2. In order for the Bills to try and keep pace, I think they will have to air it out. Yeah the run game may be there but the Dolphins ranked 7th best in the league allowing just 97.1 rushing yards per game last year, yet they ranked 15th best in passing yards allowed per game. If there is a way to attack this Miami defense it is through the air.
Regardless of who the Bills have at receiver, I like Allen to air the ball out early and often. Perhaps would sprinkle a little on 300+ passing yards for #17. GL.
Keon Coleman OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Keon Coleman OVER 3.5 Receptions (-120)
I really hate to do this, due to my Dolphins ML wager pending, but I think this is the right play as much as it pains me. I am backing Josh Allen to throw for over 244 yards and for good reason. In order to due that he will need receivers to throw to, and I think Keon is the perfect fit. Coleman is coming off his NFL debut against the Cardinals with 4 reactions for 51 yards on 5 targets, not bad numbers for a kid in his first NFL game. Coleman also had a 21.7% target share during Sundays game against the Cardinals, which is promising. He is going to have to adjust to this level and adjust quickly because he’s not facing the Cardinals anymore. Coleman is one player that is going to have to play well in order for Buffalo to have a chance at winning this game.
As discussed above, the Bills lost both Diggs and Davis in the offseason but drafted Coleman for that reason. With the amount of volume this Buffalo offense has in regards to passing the ball, Keon could really go off this year. The Bills need a play marker and he can without a doubt be that guy. The Dolphins defense is weaker against the pass than they are against the rush, ranking 15th in the air compared to 7th in the ground. If the Bills are going to exploit the Dolphins, their best chance is to do it with the arm of Josh Allen.
I like Coleman to have another respectable game, building off of his NFL debut against the Cardinals.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
I already have two over props so why not make it a third. Backing Waddle to have another good game after opening the season with a 100+ yard receiving day against the Jaguars on Sunday. Waddle finished that game with 5 receptions and 109 receiving yards, and part of me believes that he can replicate that performance tomorrow night.
In five career games against the Bills, Waddle has a combined 339 receiving yards, good for 67.8 yards per game. He has also gone over Thursdays number of 63.5 in 2 of the L3 games against the Bills, combining for 262 yards. An average of 87.3 yards per game.
With the concerns Miami has at running back (Mostert ruled OUT and Achane questionable), I would expect them to relay more on the pass game and their weapons outside in Hill and Waddle to move the ball. GL.
