CFB x EPL Parlay
Kansas St ML/Man United Tie No Bet (-117)
This may take some of you for a loop but I will do some explaining. The main reason why I love posting on my site is because I can get creative with plays like this one. Backing a two leg parlay between Kansas State who plays Arizona Friday night (college football) and Manchester United who plays Southampton on Saturday morning (English Premier League). Nothing like a little cross sport parlay to get the weekend juices flowing.
Starting with Kansas St in what some people could see as a trap game for Arizona. I say trap because people will see the ranking next to Arizona and think they can easily keep this within a touchdown, but I beg to differ. Although Arizona is on a 11 game won streak, dating back to last season and has won their first two games to start the year, there are some underlying issues. In week 1 against New Mexico they allowed 39 points and 211 rushing yards on 38 carries (5.7 YPC). In the most recent game against Northern Arizona, they had to come from behind after being down 7-10 at halftime. Yes you could argue that they still won the game why do you care, but they should be dominating teams like NAU, they were -37.5 favorites.
The biggest thing that stuck out for me when handicapping this game was Kansas States rushing attack against this Arizona rushing defense. Arizona is allowing 150.0 rushing yards per game through their first two games and Kansas State is averaging 249.0 rushing yards per game. K-State has a chance to really get a hold of this game with running the football. Rushing for 283 yards on 21 carries (9.1 YPC) against UT Martin and 215 yards on 33 carries (6.5 YPC) against Tulane.
I think if Kansas State is able to control the trenches with DJ Giddens, they will have a great chance at winning this game outright and even covering the number.
Onto Manchester United. I originally wanted to back United ML in a straight bet but even with all the talent that they have they’re just too unpredictable, I opted to play it safe. Man U is off a bad 0-3 loss to Liverpool in their last game before the international break, hopefully they were able to regroup these last few days and prep for a below average Southampton squad.
Just newly promoted, Southampton couldn’t have wished for a worse start to the season. Starting 0-3 with losses to Newcastle (who had 10 men), Nottingham Forest and Brentford. Southampton allowed 24 shots, 8 on goal, and 10 corners to Forest and 22 shots, 7 on goal and 3 goals to Brentford. This team is allowing 1.6 goals per game and now welcome Manchester United to their home turf, who haven’t had the greatest start in terms of goal scoring but they have more than enough talent to punish any team.
While United haven’t been much better than Southampton, losing to Brighton and Liverpool in back to back games, I think this is the perfect get right game for them. Fresh off a two week international break, taking on a poor Southampton team and looking to have an almost 100% fit squad, just missing Hojlund and Shaw. I don’t trust Manchester United one bit but I think they will do enough tomorrow morning to just scrape out a win on the road. Taking draw no bet just to have a little bit of insurance in case this ends in a tie. GL.
