Arkansas vs Kansas - March Madness Betting Picks

The Matchup: No. 10 Arkansas (20-13) faces No. 7 Kansas (21-12) in Providence. Arkansas, in John Calipari’s first year, brings a stingy D (71.2 PPG allowed, 18th in KenPom) and late-season form (9-4 ATS in last 13). Kansas, led by Bill Self, boasts a top-10 D (63.9 PPG allowed) but sputtered (4-5 in last 9), leaning on Hunter Dickinson (17.6 PPG, 10 RPG).

Spread: Arkansas +4.5 (-110, DraftKings). Kansas is 15-16 ATS, 4-6 in last 10; Arkansas thrives as underdogs (6-3 ATS at +4.5 or more). Hogs’ size (Ivisic, Brazile) matches KU’s, and their 43.3% free-throw rate exploits Kansas’ 355th-ranked FT defense. Take Arkansas +4.5.

Player Prop: Hunter Dickinson O16.5 points (-115, FanDuel). Dickinson’s a beast (17.6 PPG, 56.2% FG) vs Arkansas’ 59th-ranked effective FG defense. He’s hit 17+ in 58% of games—expect a big night.

Total: 146.5 leans UNDER (-108, BetMGM). Both top-20 defenses (KU 14th, ARK 59th in FG% allowed) and low 3PT rates (KU 297th, ARK 240th) suggest a grind. Bart Torvik projects 142 pts.

Why Arkansas Covers: Calipari’s tourney savvy and KU’s inconsistency (316th in FT rate) keep it close. Hogs could steal it outright.