Sinner v Medvedev

Both players to win a set & Sinner to win (+126)

OVER 3.5 Sets (-196)

Essentially doubling down on OVER 3.5 sets here, could end up being a bad decision but I think history will repeat itself between these two.

Want to get this out of the way before I dive into the analysis, I know the odds suck for OVER 3.5 sets but everything is pointing to this being a thriller and there was no way I could lay off. Even at -200, it is a price I am more than willing to pay based off the numbers.

These two have faced off 12 times in their career and 8 times since 2023, so it’s fair to say that they have seen their fair share of each other. Surprisingly Medvedev leads the head to head 7-5 but has won just 1 of the L6 matchups. Medvedev won the first 6 matchups between the two but since then Sinner has won 5 of the L6 with the only loss coming in a 5 set thriller in this year's Wimbledon.

Although the history between these two has been so tight, I think I have found an edge with Sinner. The majority of his losses have come early in his career, one loss in 2020, two losses in 2021, one loss in 2022 and two losses in 2023. Once hitting his stride and being the world #1 Sinner has dominated this matchup winning 83% of the matchups as stated earlier.

While I do think Sinner will win this match tomorrow night, it certainly won’t be easy and this is the exact reason I doubled down on the OVER sets. Just 1 of the L5 matchups has been won in straight sets, and 2 of the L2 major matchups have gone the full 5 sets (2024 Australian Open and 2024 Wimbledon).

Not only does history say that this will be a dog fight but both of these guys have played lights out throughout this US Open. Medvedev has dropped just one set through 4 rounds and is coming off a dominate 6-0, 6-1, 6-3 win in round 4. Sinner has also dropped just one set so far and it was the first set of the tournament, and just beat #14 Tommy Paul in straight sets Monday night.

Both players are playing at the top of their game currently so I do expect this to go more than 3 sets. But with the history between the two, the dominance as of recently for the Italian and the sheer talent advantage that Sinner has, I expect him to come out on top after a long night in New York. Sinner in five. GL.