9/3 US Open

Frits/Zverev & Dimitrov/Tiafoe OVER 3.5 sets (+102)

Had an extremely difficult time trying to handicap both of these matches, I could make cases for both guys in both matches to win. I think both matches have the chance to go a full five sets and for that reason I have chosen to take the over in both. The odds were around -250 for both bets, so combined them into a parlay to get plus money odds.

Starting with the Fritz/Zverev match because that is the first one on the schedule. These players have faced each other a total of nine times in their careers with Zverev holding the edge 5-4. Also, since 2019 they have played each other seven times, with the winner alternating every matchup. Fritz wins in 2019, Zverev in 2021, Fritz in 2021, Zverev in 2022, Fritz in 2023, Zverev in 2024 and Fritz most recent at this year’s Wimbledon. They have also faced five times on hard court, with Fritz holding that edge 3-2.

Also, they have played each other in majors three times, with every match up going 4+ sets. Including most recently, this year’s Wimbledon, which went five sets.

The matchup between these two players couldn’t be closer, and todays match won’t be any different. It’s a literal coinflip and that is why I have chosen to back the OVER sets. We don’t know who is going to win, they only thing we do know is its going to be a battle. If I had to pick a winner to would be Fritz behind the home crowd of New York in five sets.

Moving onto tonight’s primetime match between Francis Tiafoe and Grigor Dimitrov.

Dimitrov holds the career head-to-head between the two, but I don’t want to mention that because I think the numbers are slightly misleading. Although up 3-1 lifetime on Tiafoe, three of those matches came before 2019 and the most recent one has come on grass, different from tonight’s surface. Tiafoe lost in straight sets in the 2023 Wimbledon, but I am going to ignore those stats because he is much worse on grass than he is hard court. Tiafoe is a lifetime 12-7 at Wimbledon compared to 17-9 at the US Open, including back-to-back quarter finals appearances and a semifinals appearance in 2022. Maybe I’m being optimistic and ignoring clear facts, but I think my argument holds weight.

Secondly, Dimitrov plays better at Wimbledon than he does at the US Open, winning at a 61% clip in England compared to 57% in New York. Slim margins but something worth noting.

Dimitrov has been playing lights out during this tournament, winning in straight sets in rounds 1-3 and beating Rublev in five sets in the round of 16. He has looked really good and it’s going to take a calculated match from Tiafoe to pull off the upset. We saw what Tiafoe is capable of after coming back from down 2-1 against Shelton and I think it will take that same grit to beat Dimitrov tonight. The beauty of this is that he doesn’t need to win the match he just has to win one set, which I think he is more than capable of doing.

Like I said earlier I think we are in for a five-set match down to the wire, with both guys winning at least one set. GL.