EPL x CBB
Tottenham/Brighton BTTS & Baylor +13.5 (-130)
Odds slightly higher than I wanted here because I took such a large spread for Baylor, I could have knocked it down a couple points to get this slip closer to even odds but I like where were at regardless. I don’t mind paying the price.
Starting with Tottenham/Brighton as it is the earlier of the two games, the Tottenham offense seems to be getting closer to full strength with Maddison back in the starting lineup and Son back from the Asian Cup starting on the bench. Dating back to July 2023, both teams have scored in 23 of 30 (76.6%) fixtures for Tottenham and Tottenham themselves have scored in 29 of those 30 (96.6%). Since the 2023/24 season kicked off in the summer Tottenham has just been goal city on both ends. Also, the Spurs have scored 2+ goals in 9 of their L12 games and have allowed 2+ goals in 9 of their L15 games.
Just like Tottenham, dating back to July 2023 both teams have scored in 25 of 35 (71.4%) games for Brighton in all competitions and in 19 of 23 (82.6%) Premier League games. After a rough January month where they scored zero goals Brighton bounced back in their most recent game against Crystal Palace netting 4 goals on 13 shots. With Mitoma providing a boost also back from the Asian Cup I expect Brighton to see at least one in the back of the net Saturday morning.
When these two teams faced on 12/28 the scored ended 4-2 in favor of Brighton with a combined 34 shots. Both teams have exceptional records when it comes to scoring goals and conceding them and I expect more of the same at Hotspur Stadium.
Onto Baylor, the team that has been both hot and cold this year. After starting the season 9-0 many were thinking Baylor was back and ready to compete for another National Championship, but then they went on to drop their next two games to Duke and Michigan St by a combined 30 points. They bounce back and win their next five games just to lose three straight to Kansas St, Texas and TCU. They have won another three straight games against UCF, Iowa St, and Texas Tech but now face a challenge against Kansas on the road.
Kansas is a great home team, 15-0 on the year with wins against Tennessee, UConn, TCU, Oklahoma, Cincinatti, and Houston. This will be a massive challenge for a Baylor team that is just 4-4 this season away from Waco but I think they are getting lucky tonight. Kevin McCullar Jr. will miss this game due to a knee injury, he averages 19.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 4.6 APG (20 PPG since 12/1) and has scored 15+ points in 20 of 22 games. This is huge loss for Kansas, he’s their leading scorer as well as a dominate perimeter defender.
I think Baylor could win this game outright and the current line of +7.5 would be enough but I want to play it safe and take a couple extra points. The reason I chose +13.5 is because Baylor has covered this line in 4 of their 5 losses on the year and Kansas has covered -13.5 just once in their L6 games and are 0-7 on the year covering this line against ranked opponents. Baylor keeps it close and covers this alternate spread with ease. GL.
