Liverpool/Burnley
Jota/Nunez 1+ shot on goal & Liverpool ML (-150)
Odds are super steep on this one, just at my threshold of -150 but I think it is a slam dunk play. The Liverpool offense should have a field day against Burnley who has allow 2+ goals in 5 of the L7 games. burnley has allowed 47 goals through 23 games (avg. 2.06 goals per game) and now is tasked with stopping a Liverpool front line that has scored a combined 15 goals in their L5 games, 2+ in 4 of the L5, and 4+ in 3 of the L5. Even without their best player in Mo Salah this offense is clicking. Lastly, Liverpool has 4 wins in their L5 games, with an average win margin of 2.75 goals per game.
Next, I want to touch on the two player props I chose in this game, Jota and Nunez to each have a shot on goal. Starting with Darwin Nunez, he has 22 shots and 8 shots on goal in his L5 games and has 2+ shots on goal in 4 of the L5 games with the only game not reaching that mark he was subbed on in the second half. Also, Nunez has recorded at least 1 shot on goal in 5 of the L6 Premier League games while registering a combined 28 shots, 12 shots on goal and 3 goals during that 6 game stretch. During that 12/26 matchup against Burnley Nunez had 2 shots, 1 on goal and 1 goal. Lastly, without Mo Salah in the lineup for Liverpool, Nunez has taken control of this front line and is leading the charge, his volume is just way too good for me to pass up on.
Onto Jota who has had good numbers but not Darwin Nunez numbers. Jota is the most clinical player on this Liverpool team in my eyes, he doesn’t take as many shots are Nunez but he’s extremely productive when he gets his chances. In the L5 games Jota has 14 shots, 6 on goal and 3 goals in all completions. Jota has had 1+ shot on target in 8 of the L11 Premier League games and a total of 12 shots on goal during that 11 game stretch.
With Burnleys defense down as bad as they are allowing 11 goals in the L5 games, Liverpools offense scoring on anyone and everyone and the production of these two forwards we should get it done rather easily this morning. GL.
