Saturday College Hoops
Iowa State ML/Illinois +9.5 (-138)
Backing another college hoops alternate spread parlay, some people may hate that I don’t take the actual spread but this has been paying and I don’t plan on switching up any time soon.
Starting with Illinois, when I first saw the spread of +3.5, I was slightly confused, Illinois is the better team at 17-5 compared to 14-9, they’ve won 5 of their L6 with the only loss coming in overtime and beat Michigan State 71-68 on 1/11. I was perplexed to say the least, especially because although they only beat MSU by three at home they were without their best player and leading scorer in Terrence Shannon Jr (20.5 PPG).
They were setting us up for a trap because everyone was going to hammer Illinois as an underdog after seeing the numbers, so I had to make an adjustment. Thats why I took the alternate spread and bought it up to 9.5. I chose 9.5 because even in their 5 losses they have covered 9.5 in every single one of them. Including two without Shannon. They have lost by an average of 6.6 points per game. Michigan St just 2-2 in their L4 games with losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota by 15 and 3 points.
This may be a trap line but Illinois the better team here with and I think we are playing it safe by buying a couple points in the even of a MSU blowout.
Onto Iowa State, an absolute wagon at home. ISU is 13-1 at home this season averaging 82.8 PPG and allowing just 56.6 PPG. Numbers that are up substantially from their road averages of 71.8 PPG and 72.5 PPG allowed, a swing of 11 PPG on offense and 16 PPG on defense. Also, Iowa State has wins against Iowa (by 25), Houston (by 4), Kansas St (by 11), and Kansas (by 4) all on their home court.
When playing at home ISU is one of the best teams in the country, they really are a tale of two teams, and I think this line of -350 is spot on even against a 17-6 TCU team that lost by just 1 point in their matchup on 1/20. Iowa State played on the road in that game on 1/20, they scored 73 and allowed 72, right on par with their road averages.
I like Iowa State to continue their home dominance and cruise to a victory this afternoon. GL.
