Red Sox/Dodgers
Red Sox ML (+100)
The last game of the MLB slate and the last sporting event of the weekend we are presented with a very good matchup on ESPN Sunday night baseball. We are backing Crawford and the Red Sox to avoid the sweep. Boston has lost the first two games of this series 4-1 and 7-6 while getting outscored 11-7.
The pitching matchup is really the only spot I was able to find value in this game. Crawford is taking the mound for Boston and he has been extremely dialed thus far. With a 3.04 ERA (tied for 15th in the league), 2.35 ERA on the road, allowing 13 ER in his L44.1 innings and just 1 earned run in 20.0 innings pitched in July. Lastly, Crawford has allowed just 10 hits, 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in his L20 innings pitched in July. He has been cooking since 7/2, those numbers are not something that I want to fade.
Boston as a team hasn’t been setting the world on fire recently, winners of 10 of their L15 games but like I mentioned earlier they lost the L2 games against the Dodgers, hoping they are able to turn that around tonight given how well Crawford has been pitching.
Onto LA, as discussed the value in this game comes from the pitchers mound. The Dodgers will run 35 year old James Paxton out there tonight, boasting a 4.35 ERA on the year. Paxton has not been horrible this year, although getting a little bit older and some saying his best years are behind him he still is 7-2, 3-0 at home and holds a 2.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium.
Paxton may have good numbers in the sunny city of Los Angeles but he has had some rough sledding recently. He has allowed 14 ER, 8 walks and 21 hits in his L12.2 innings pitched. Paxton has also allowed 22 ER, 16 walks and 34 hits combined in his L32.1 innings between months June and July. It seems his ERA is skewed due to his brilliant start to the season and is now starting to average out after his poor performance heading into the summer. Paxton had a 3.51 ERA in April, 3.08 ERA in May, and has now seen a 6.46 ERA in June and 5.19 ERA in July (through his start in 7/12).
The All Star break may have done some favors for James Paxton but there is no way I can fade Boston at plus money with this big a pitching advantage. We shall see if Paxton can turn his season around tonight. GL.
