Reds/Braves

Braves F5 ML (-120)

F5 UNDER 4.5 (-152)

I know it backfired last night, but I am trusting the data once again in tonight’s pitching matchup to make my pick. Both pitchers have been incredible through the first half of the season. Starting with Hunter Greene holding a 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 126 strikeouts (13th in the MLB). Not to mention a 2.53 ERA and just 13 ER through 46.1 innings pitched on the road. Those numbers are great but after taking a deeper dive there are some things that stick out. Although just allowing 13 ER on the road he has given up 19 walks and 26 hits through those 46.1 innings. Not horrible but it’s a hit in 56% of the innings and a walk in 41% of the innings, he has been able to work around them because he has such a high strikeout percentage. Greene will also get the benefit of facing a sub-par Braves offense ranking just 20th in runs, 16th in batting average and 24th in on base percentage.

Onto Lopez, the real reason I find value in this game. After taking a look at Lopez numbers there is simply no way I can’t back him tonight, even if Greene dealing. Lopez has 1.88 ERA on the year and is 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA at home. He has allowed just 7 ER through 51 innings when pitching in Atlanta. His numbers are just too good I can’t stop posting his stats. Lopez has allowed just 9 ER in his L38.1 innings, 5 ER in his L16.1, and allowed 2 or less runs in 15 of his 17 starts on the year (average of 5.5 innings pitched per start).

Lastly, the sample size is extremely small, but the Reds offense is a combined 6-37 (.162) career against Lopez. Just 4 RBIs in 37 at bats.

I originally was only taking Braves F5 ML but after digging into the numbers of both Greene and Lopez, I had to add first 5 under as well. I bet based off the data and there was no way I was going to sit this one out, both guys have been lights out. GL.

Odds are from Draftkings & Fanduel