UNCW vs Texas Tech - March Madness Betting Picks

The Matchup: No. 14 UNCW (27-7) faces No. 3 Texas Tech (25-8) in Wichita. UNCW’s won 6 straight, led by Donovan Newby (14.6 PPG, 39.1% FG), with a balanced attack (79.3 PPG, 49th nationally). Texas Tech, a Big 12 power, averages 80.9 PPG (3rd in conference) behind JT Toppin (18.1 PPG, 54.8% FG). Injuries to Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams (questionable) could thin Tech’s depth.

Spread: Texas Tech -15.5 (-110, BetMGM). Tech’s 17-16 ATS, 11-4 vs non-Power 5; UNCW’s 19-10 ATS but untested vs elites (0-1 vs Kansas). Red Raiders’ D (67.6 PPG allowed) stifles UNCW’s mid-tier offense. Take Texas Tech -15.5 if injuries clear; lean UNCW +15.5 if not.

Player Prop: JT Toppin O19.5 points (-115, FanDuel). Toppin’s a mismatch vs UNCW’s 167th-ranked interior D. He’s hit 20+ in 11 games—expect a big night.

Total: 143.5 leans UNDER (-108, DraftKings). UNCW’s size (7-footer Obioha) slows Tech’s pace, and Tech’s top-20 D limits scoring. Models say 140ish.

Why Texas Tech Covers: Elite talent, rebounding (37.8 RPG), and tourney experience. UNCW’s CAA run ends here unless Tech’s shorthanded.