UCSD vs Michigan - March Madness Betting Picks

The Matchup: No. 12 UCSD (30-4) faces No. 5 Michigan (25-9) in Denver. Tritons, in their first NCAA tourney, boast a top-5 D (61.6 PPG allowed) and 3PT shooting (38.6%), led by Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 PPG). Michigan, fresh off a Big Ten title, leans on 7-footers Vlad Goldin (16.7 PPG) and Danny Wolf (13 PPG, 9.8 RPG). Altitude and fatigue could factor in.

Spread: Michigan -2.5 (-110, BetMGM). Wolverines are 16-18 ATS, 8-14 as 2.5+ favorites; UCSD’s 25-7 ATS (13-2 in last 15) is nation-best. Tritons’ turnover-forcing D (23.2% TO rate) exploits Michigan’s 20% TO rate. Take UCSD +2.5—upset alert.

Player Prop: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones O18.5 points (-115, FanDuel). He’s hit 19+ in 75% of games, and Michigan’s 167th-ranked 3PT defense gives him space. Expect 20+.

Total: 142.5 leans UNDER (-108, DraftKings). UCSD’s slow pace (283rd in tempo) and Michigan’s top-10 D (63.9 PPG allowed) cap scoring. Models project 140ish.

Why UCSD Covers: Elite D, hot streak (15-0), and Michigan’s travel fatigue post-tourney. Tritons could win outright as a trendy 12-seed.