UFC 306
Sean O’Malley ML (-135)
I have been waiting for this fight for a long time, and I am sure there are plenty of others who are in the same boat. As someone from the East Coast, I will attempt to stay up for this fight, but I haven’t been too successful the last couple of cards. I think Sean is a stud but also think that Merab is a sleeper and can get this done as an underdog. Let’s get into this one.
With his rise to the champion of the featherweight division, O’Malley has had a good run in his L3 fights. He beat Yan via decision, in October of 2022, beat Sterling via TKO in August of 2023, and most recently beat Vera in March of this year. O’Malley goes for his second title defense Saturday night against Merab.
Merab on the other hand is on a 10-fight win streak dating back to September of 2018, beating guys like Jose Aldo, Peter Yan, and Henry Cejudo in his L3 fights to get to this point.
There are some major differences between the two that I have found, O’Malley has gotten the finish while Merab has been a man of decision. 6 of Sean’s L8 wins have come by TKO/KO while 9 of Merabs's L10 wins have come by decision. These stats don’t do much for us in terms of picking a winner but if you're into props this could come in handy for the method of victory.
Something that worries me about tomorrow night is that Merab loves to take it to the canvas. In his fight against Cejudo he was 5/11 on takedowns, against Yan he was 11/49, and against Aldo he was 0/16. Merab may not hit at a good clip but his volume of takedown attempts is there. While I am worried about the submission, O’Malley’s hands are what have won him the belt. 230/356 (64.6%) on significant strikes against Vera, 25/35 (71.4%) on significant strikes against Sterling, 84/163 (51.5%) on significant strikes against Yan and 39/62 (62.9%) against Paiva in his L4 fights. Sean has been crazy accurate with his punches and rightfully so, with two TKO/KO’s in his L4 fights.
Suga Sean’s striking is just too good for me to fade him on Saturday night. People are claiming that Merab will easily be able to take him down and submit him but I disagree. Although we’ve never really seen Sean be tested on the ground, he still has elite grappling and the fear of his hands will be too much for Merab. The 33-year-old from Georgia goes down once again. GL.
