Olympic Tennis 7/31
Alcaraz & Nadal ML/Swiatek ML (-179)
Odds for this are steep and steeper than I would like but I love this bet none the less. For anything under -200 I feel this is a steal, backing the best clay court duo of all time in Alcaraz and Nadal and the current best women’s clay court player by a massive margin in Swiatek.
Starting with Alcaraz and Nadal, coming off a close round 2 victory against the Dutch duo, winning 6-4, 6-7 and 10-1 in the third set tiebreak this could have gone south for them. After losing the second set tie break they regrouped and dominated in the third set allowing them to advance to the third round.
Although this match went three sets I believe I could have been over in two with the amount of break point opportunities that that Spaniards had and just couldn’t capitalize on.
I also believe that they played worse than they could have, Alcaraz didn’t look like his typical self missing some routine shots that lead to big points for the Dutch.
Nadal and Alcaraz were my pick pre tournament to win the gold at +380 and I really don’t plan on fading them anytime soon. I am going to back this duo at any number honestly, I just think if they are at their best there is no doubles team that can really compete with them. They’re too good on clay and too good as a pair, really may be the most talented doubles pairing in tennis history.
One thing I do want to note about this match is, they obviously just played a 2.5 hour doubles match yesterday afternoon and Alcaraz is set to play a singles match this morning. Not saying fatigue will be a factor but just a lot of tennis being played in a short time period.
Next, onto Swiatek who was also my pre tournament pick to win gold in the women’s singles.
Just like Nadal, Swiatek has absolutely dominated clay in the last couple of years. Iga is 24-1 on clay this year, 135-17 in her career and has won 4 of the L5 French Opens at this venue. I mean if that isn’t owning clay I don’t know what is (maybe Nadals 14 titles).
The odds for this are factoring that domination in, at -1400 odds makers are also expecting her to keep this train rolling.
She has really cruised through the first three rounds of the Olympics as well winning 6-2, 7-5 in round one, 6-1, 6-1 on round two and 6-3, 6-4 in round three. No one has really given her any trouble thus far.
Swiatek now faces Danielle Collins who ranks 9th in the world, much better competition than Iga’s previous three opponents. Collins is also 16-4 on clay this season but there is a major stat that leads me to believe Swiatek will walk into round four of this tournament.
These two have faced off five times in the L2 years and Swiatek is 5-0 in this matches including a recent victory of 6-3, 6-0 in Madrid. Swiatek has won 83% of sets and 69% of games against Collins.
I think it’s safe to say the odds make sense here and Swiatek should be in store for another victory against the American Collins. GL.
