AFC Championship
Ravens ML (-166)
I understand that this may be irrelevant for some people because the line has moved so much, but I took this line right after the Chiefs/Bills game ended and didn’t have my site up yet so i’m posting now. You can always use Ravens ML as a parlay piece if you so wish.
I am slightly bias on this pick because I hate KC and am sick of all the Taylor Swift screen time but I think I have some factual evidence to back my choice. If we look at the four games that Baltimore has lost his year it was a 3 point overtime loss against the Colts (had two fumbles, missed field goal at the end of the fourth quarter and turnover on downs in OT), a 7 point loss against the Steelers in Pittsburgh (nothing to say on this the offense just looked horrible scoring just 10 points, but had a couple touchdowns dropped), a 2 point loss against the Browns where they were up 31-17 in the fourth and a loss in week 17 against Pittsburgh again but they rested most of their starters. Since that loss against the Browns in week 10 they went 6-1 (only loss coming in week 17, again rested everyone) averaging 33.8 PPG, winning by an average of 16.1 PPG. these games came against the Bengals, Chargers, Rams, Jaguars, 49ers and Dolphins all teams that were supposed to make the playoffs or made the playoffs this season. Lastly, they are coming off a diviosnal win against the Texans scoring 34 points and winning by 24. This Ravens team has been on another level since losing to the Cleveland.
The Chiefs in the other hand are a different story, since the bye week in week 10 they are just 4-6 (this includes both playoff wins) and haven’t impressed much besides the win against Miami in the wildcard round. Since their week 10 bye they have a point differential of just 36 points, through 10 games that’s a win margin of just 3.6 points per game. Also this is heavily weighted because the 19 point win against Miami is a huge outlier, without that blowout win they have a point differential of just 15 points, this is not the same Chiefs of the past few years.
One difference marker on the defensive side of the ball will for a fact be L’Jarius Sneed who has been a monster all year, he most likely will travel with Zay Flowers so we have to elect another Ravens receiver to have a big game. Sneed is coming off a game where he held Diggs to just 3 catches and 21 yards on 8 targets, he is the truth and has been locking up the opposing number 1 receiver all year. Having Mark Andrews back in the lineup will help a ton in the Baltimore pass game, Dalton Kincaid was the Bills leading receiver in the game last weekend.
I don’t want to say this but the only thing that worries me about this game is the refs doing a little cooking for KC, we’ve all seen the tweets and conspiracies about Shawn Smith and I hope they don’t come to fruition but we shall see. Regardless I like the Ravens to take care of business at home this afternoon.
My ticket will be posted on my twitter (the10dollarman). Good luck if tailing.
Record: 7-3
