8/26 US Open

Rune/Nakashima OVER 3.5 sets/Tiafoe ML (-144)

Betting on the first day of a major tennis tournament is always hard because there are so many massive favorites across the board, it is hard to find value. I originally wasn't going to bet anything but after looking at the odds for tonight I think I found a very good play. The odds aren't perfect, but I don't mind paying the extra juice for this one.

Starting with the earlier and more difficult leg, I am backing both Holger Rune and Brandon Nakashima to win a set. At first, I was going to have Rune ML in this parlay but after digging into the history of these two playing head-to-head I opted for something different.

I think everyone can agree to Holger Rune is the better and the more talented player, but he has had his fair share of struggles against the American (Nakashima). While the sample size is small, just playing twice in their short careers Nakashima is 2-0 against Rune all time. Winning 6-0, 6-2 in the only notable matchup at the ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai back in 2023 (other matchup was a round robin). Both of the matches these two have played against each other have come on hard court (1x indoor, 1x outdoor), same surface as the one in New York tonight.

Rune is coming off a semifinal's loss to Francis Tiafoe at the Cincinnati Open just a week ago, a match that he should have won. He was serving for the match but dropped serve and ended up losing in the third set. In a year where he had high expectations it has been up and down. Ranking 15th on tour and just 33-17 on the year it has been far from what he was hoping for, but even with all that going wrong he has undeniable talent that could help him go on a run in New York.

Although ranking 50th on the ATP Nakashima has had a good run as of late, making it to the round of 16 in both Canada and Cincinnati where he lost both tournaments to Rublev. During those two tournaments he has beaten Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz and Aurthor Fils, players ranking 12, 12, and 24 on the ATP.

I want to back Rune to win this match and think he will but there is just too much value in both players to win a set, I think this goes 4/5 sets.

Onto the easier of the two legs, our boy Francis Tiafoe. Tiafoe is coming off a bad loss in the Cincinnati Open finals to Jannik Sinner, after he beat Rune in the semifinals there was some hope he would get his first victory, but it didn't happen. He now gets another chance at a much more difficult event, the US Open.

Tiafoe looked really good in Cincinnati, beating Musetti (18th on the ATP), Lehecka (35th), Hurkacz (7th) and Rune (16th) all in route to the finals. Although he came up short, he instilled a ton of confidence in me as a fan, that he could potentially make a run in the US Open.

Tiafoe owns the head-to-head in the one match these two played together at the end of July in Washington. Francis won 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 in the round of 16. At just 9-17 on the year, I don't see Kovacevic coming into New York and beating Tiafoe. Francis is in too good of form and just has too much talent to get bounced in the first round on hard court. GL.