8/24 Premier League
Brighton/Man United BTTS & Man City ML (-164)
First bet of the weekend kicks off with a two-leg parlay between a high scoring game in Brighton and an expected blowout in Manchester. Starting with both teams to score in the Brighton/Manchester United game, me and many others are expecting this to be high scoring. A game that could see 4+ goals (I think we finish around 2-1 but think this could see multiple goals by each team).
Brighton is coming off a 3-0 win against Everton where they surprisingly only had 10 total shots with just 5 coming on goal. I know they scored 3 goals on just 5 SOG but, i think they can still take advantage of a depleted United back line. Man U will be withour Luke Shaw, Tyrell Malacia, and Leny Yoro on defense allowing this Brighton front to take advantage. I don’t think they repeat the performance from last week but I think they find the back of the net at least once.
I would normally think that United will have no trouble finding the back of the net with a front of Rashford, Fernandes and Mount but after last weeks performance against Fulham I have a little bit worry. I believe they were still working out the kinks last week and will probably be doing the same thing in match week 2 but I have faith they will get at least one past the Brighton keeper.
Manchester City comes with zero analysis, they should win this game by halftime. Ipswich gave Liverpool some troubles in the first half of last weeks game but Man City is a different beast. They also have an extra week to prepare, this game should be over by the time the whistle blows after 45 minutes. Ipswich may have finished second on the table in the Championship but they’re now facing the second best team in the world, their EPL dreams will come to an end Saturday morning. City win this with ease.
Tottenham ML/Richarlison 1+ shot on goal (-146)
Fresh off a devastating draw to Leicester, Tottenham look to bounce back against a lowly Everton team coming off a bad 3-0 loss to Brighton in match week 1.
Let me start off by saying Tottenham should have won the game on Monday and won it pretty convincingly. They controlled over 70% of the ball, had 15 total shots and 7 on goal. Although they scored just one goal it very well should have been two or three that found the back of the net. Regardless it was their inability to finish possessions and defend that lost them that game. Luckily they get the chance to bounce back against a bad Everton team off a loss to Brighton.
The difference in quality between these two teams is what led me to adding the Spurs to my parlay. Everton isn’t a horrible team, I project they finish in the lower half of the table and they have a decent attack threat in Calvert-Lewin but they are nothing compared to a really good Tottenham team that I think can finish top four and make the Champions League.
The talent in this Tottenham midfield and attack is what is going to propel them this season. We are all aware that they are going to concede goals with the style of play that they have but I think they are going to outscore teams all season and will do the same tomorrow against Everton. Even without Solanke Tottenhams offense should be too much for Everton.
Onto the Brazilian Richarlison who I have a love hate relationship with. He seems to miss the easy goals but score the difficult ones, regardless I like him to put at least one shot on net tomorrow. As I mentioned with Solanke out of the lineup he will be the starting striker tomorrow giving him (hopefully) plenty of opportunities to score with passes from Son and Maddison. With a combined 62 shots over 29 games last season, his volume is there he just needs to find the net.
Arsenal ML (-130)
I was surprised at this line when the oddsmakers opening it up, I believe Arsenal was +110 on the money line. I know they are playing on the road and Aston Villa had a good season last year but they are facing arguably the best team in the Premier League in Arsenal. A 2-1 win against West Ham last week is great and all but this Arsenal defense will present a much more difficult challenge. They were the best defense in the EPL last season by a decent margin.
Arsenal is coming off a 2-0 win against Wolves. 18 total shots 6 on goal while only controlling 52% of possession, this was a closer game than the score dictates. Wolves also had one or two chances where they should have found the back of the net. This is a new week against a far better team in Aston Villa but I still don’t think Arsenal will drop points.
Although Aston Villa won both matchups last season 1-0 and 2-0 I don’t like their chances tomorrow. Arsenal seem to have found something in Kai Havertz up front and the loss of Douglas Luiz is larger in my eyes than some people think. I know he only had 9 goals and 5 assists but he impacted the game more than the stat sheet shows.
Regardless I like Arsenal to win this game outright, I think the line is fair based off the history between these two but Arsenal get the last laugh this time around. GL.
Fulham/Leicester BTTS (-130)
This was a very surprising pick, even for me. We all know Leisters ability to score but betting on Fulham to find the back of the net is always a struggle.
Last season Fulham was right about average in both goals scored and goals conceded ranking 13th in both categories. They allowed a combined 61 goals (1.6 per game) in 38 games in the 23/24' season. They are coming off a game against Manchester United where they honestly did a very good job keeping their offense in check. Allowing 14 total shots, 5 on goal and keeping a clean sheet up until the 87th minute. This Fulham defense isn't a brick wall but they did a respectable job against a talented United front.
Do I think they will have similar success against Leicester? Maybe, but I think they will eventually find the back of the net. Leicester is coming off a draw against Tottenham on Monday in a game that could have gone either way. You could say that Tottenham should have won 3-0 after their dominance in the first half but you could also say that Leicester should have won 2-1 after the switch they made after halftime. The stats tell a different story than if you watched the game with just 7 total shots and 3 on goal. They made the most out of the slim chances they had.
I know this is a step up in competition from the Championship but Leicester had a great year on the offensive side of the ball. They scored 89 total goals for an average of 1.93 goals per game. Like I said this is the Premier League, the best league on earth but great numbers none the less.
I know Fulham's offense isn't great but I think they will find a couple really good chances against a Leicester defense that allowed Tottenham to walk all over them in the season opener with 15 shots and 70.5% possession.
I think we will see an unexpected high scoring game between these two. GL.
Bruno Fernandes/Son both 1+ shot on goal (-110)
Backing a two leg player prop between the two best players on Manchester United and Tottenham. With Dominic Solanke missing this game with an ankle injury for Tottenham, I like Son return to his normal self and take more of an offensive role tomorrow morning.
Staring with Bruno who had 6 shots and 3 on goal against Fulham in the season opener. The leader for this Manchester United team, this offense goes when he goes and although he didn’t score the winner against Fulham he for sure made an impact. Playing a Brighton defense that allowed 62 goals last season (1.63 per game), I am expecting Man United and Bruno to have another good afternoon in the final third. With only one game into the season we don't have much to go off of but, at the end of last season Fernandes finished the year with a shot on goal in 9 go the L9 games and a combined 15 shots on target in those last 9 games.
Onto Heung-Min Son who didn’t have a great afternoon on Monday with just 1 total shot, I am expecting a better performance out of him tomorrow morning. While I mention that Son had a bad game against Leicester I can't forget about the Spurs team as a whole that had 15 total shots, 7 on goal and controlled over 70% of possession. Son will find his groove but it is inspiring to see their offense play at such a high level, the chances will be there he just needs to execute.
A man that had 25 games with a shot on target last season seemed to have taken a step back to newcomer Dominic Solanke last game as I touched on in the introduction. Although Solanke is a beast in front of the goal, Son is no slouch himself and I am hoping he falls back to his normal self against Everton. Same with Bruno, Son fished last season on a high not with a shot on goal in 4 of the L4 games, and in 5 of the L6 games. Like Fernandes he is the best player on this Tottenham team and they go when he goes. I am expecting Tottenham to rely on his experience to get their first win of the season tomorrow. GL.
