SNF Rams/Lions

Cooper Kupp 60+ Receiving Yards (-148)

I feel last year’s stats were kind of misleading when it comes to Kupp. He returned in week 5 after a hamstring injury and just never found his rhythm with Stafford due to rookie Puka Nacua’s success so early in the season. Yes, he did go for 100+ yards in four games but they were few and far between, with 52 or less yards in the other eight games. I think a healthy Kupp in week one will allow him and Stafford to get back to their 2021/2022 ways.

As mentioned in the seasons of 2021 and 2022 Kupp went for 60+ yards in 24 of 26 possible games, hitting at a 92% clip. One of the games he didn’t eclipse this number is when he torn his ACL mid game against the Cardinals. Over the past few seasons, the Kupp-Stafford connection has been unreal, and I think we will see them get back to that level this year.

Kupp will be up against a Lions secondary that ranked 6th worst last season allowing 247.4 passing yards per game and allowing opposing WR1 to torch them. Metcalf went for 75 YDS, Doubs went for 95 YDS, Thielen went for 107 YDS, Godwin for 77 YDS, Flowers for 75 YDS, K. Allen 175 YDS, DJ Moore 96 YDS, Watson went for 94 YDS, Olave 119 YDS, DJ Moore again for 68 YDS, Jeudy for 74 YDS, Jefferson for 141 YDS, Lamb for 227 YDS, and Jefferson again for 192 YDS. All of this was in the regular season. In 14 of 17 games, they allowed an opposing receiver to have 68+ receiving yards, and Kupp is better than a lot of these guys (not all of them, but most).

The stats are clear that this Lions secondary struggles to defend against the pass, yes, they could have made some offseason adjustments, but I won’t believe it till I see it. Kupp should be in for a monster night tonight, given Stafford look his way.

Jameson Williams Longest Reception OVER 18.5 (-120)

With just 12 NFL regular season games under his belt, I don’t have as much data to back my claim as I did with Kupp, but I think I will have enough. Out of those 12 regular season games, Williams has had a catch of 19+ yards five times (41.6%). I know for odds of -120, hitting at a 41% clip isn’t great but hear me out. Williams had a combined 42 targets in those 12 games, good for just 3.5 targets a game. He is now the clear no.2 receiver behind St. Brown, and I am expecting him to be on the field for majority of snaps and get a ton of looks this season.

We saw last year, when he is getting targets, he can make some plays. With a full season now under his belt, I think we will be seeing him get more involved in this offense, he is a complete receiver who can really help this team out.

The Lions averaged the second most passing yards per game last season, solidifying this as a pass first offense. Facing the Rams secondary that allowed a middle of the pack (19th best) 213 passing yards per game, there is some room to take advantage of this defense through the air. With St. Brown and LaPorta drawing the majority of the attention I think we will be able to see Williams slip free for some good pickups. Not to mention Williams made a name for himself at Alabama with the deep ball, having a catch of over 19 yards in 14 of 15 games in his last season. Also, during his last season in Tuscaloosa he was averaging a long catch of 51.2 yards per game. If the Lions utilize his speed and ability to track the deep ball, 18.5 will be as easy as it gets.

Wiliams has a massive night on Sunday Night Football and clears this line easily. GL.