Phillies/Pirates

Phillies ML (-170)

Line is super steep here I get it but give me a chance to explain myself. The Pirates starting lineup’s career numbers against Aaron Nola are not great, they are batting a combined 11-67 (.164). Secondly Martin Perez hasn’t been great either, giving up 15 ER in his L5 starts, 12 ER in his L3 starts and the Pirates are 0-4 in his L4 starts. He now faces a Phillies lineup that is slightly depleted with Realmuto, Stott and Marsh all out of the lineup but it’s nothing that worries me too much. The Phillies starting lineup is a career 24-78 (.307) against Perez, with 5 guys batting over .333.

Secondly, Aaron Nola has been solid coming into the All Star break. He is 6-1 with a 3.33 ERA on the road and has allowed just 11 ER in his L31.2 innings pitched. The Phillies are also 15-3 in Nolas L18 starts in the year. With Perez struggling and now having to face this Phillies offense that ranks 4th in runs scored, 3rd in batting average, 3rd in on base percentage and 6th in slugging percentage I think this is a recipe for disaster for Pittsburgh. Not to mention Aaron Nola in the form he is in, I will gladly pay up for this line and back Philadelphia. GL.