Phillies/Twins SGP

Credit: latimes.com

Bryce Harper 1+ hit & Aaron Nola 5+ Strikeouts (-145)

Backing a little same game parlay between the Phillies and Twins early this afternoon. Wanted to back the Phillies against what looks to be a bullpen game for the Twins, but the data led me to this parlay.

Starting with Harper, he has a hit in 6 of the L6 games and in 9 of the L11 games in July (81.8%). Harper also has a hit in 28 of the L32 games between June and July, hitting at an 87.5% clip. Secondly, Harper is a career 3-7 (.428) hitter against Steven Okert. It is a very small sample size but still positive results none the less.

Onto Nola, with 120 strikeouts on the year, good for 22nd in the league and an average of 6.1 Ks per game. Nola has hit this number of 5+ in 14 of 20 starts this season (70% clip) and in 11 of the L13 (84.6%). With 50 Ks in 56.1 road innings this year Nola is averaging 0.9 strikeouts per inning on the road. He also has thrown 5+ strikeouts in 5 of 9 road games this season, hitting at a 55% clip.

The one and only thing that concerns me about this bet is the Twins are a very disciplined team, they have the 8th fewest strikeouts in the league and only strikeout an average of 4.2 times per game. With Nola averaging 5.8 innings per start, we will need at least 1 strikeout per inning to hit this clip. GL.