Tuesday Champions League
Man City ML/Vini Jr 1+ shot on goal (-117)
Will start this off with my reasoning on backing Manchester City on the road. Man City went through all the group stages without arguably their best player in Kevin De Bruyne and still went 6-0 outscoring their opponents by 11 goals. Also, even when De Bruyne isn’t scoring goals he plays such a crucial role to their offense and without him City was still able to score 3 goals in every group stage match, total of 18 goals in 6 games.
City will be 100% healthy for this match against Copenhagen, De Bruyne and Haaland will both be back, alongside with Doku Alvarez and Foden this offense will be a major concern tomorrow for the Danish football club. In the three games where both Haaland and De Bruyne were back on the bench, City scored 3, 3, and 2 goals as well as 59 shots and 22 shots on goal during that stretch.
Offense shouldn’t be a problem tomorrow for the Citizens against a Copenhagen team that allowed 8 goals in 6 group stage games, 2+ goals in 3 of those 6 and 84 total shots (14 shot attempts per game). The only concern I have for tomorrow is Man Citys defense, they have conceded a goal in 12 of the L14 games, the offense is going to have to produce in order to avoid a scare. Although Copenhagen beat both Manchester United and Galatasaray and stole a point against Bayern Munich a healthy Manchester City team is a different beast, even on your home soil. Even if they go down early their offense is world class and can get them back into any game, just like we saw against Brentford last week.
Moving onto Vinicius Jr who has been on an absolute tear and his odds at -200 just don’t add up to his production over the last couple weeks. In the L5 games Vini has a combined 21 shots, 11 shots on target and 3 goals. Also, he has 2+ shots on target in each of the L5 games, and 1+ shot on target in 9 of the L10 games dating back to 11/11/23.
Vini only played in 3 of the 6 UCL group stage games but he had 1+ shot on target in each game, a combined 10 shots, 4 on target and 2 goals. I mean his numbers just speak for themself, there’s no way I can fade him in this form. Lastly, with Jude Bellingham suffering an injury over the weekend that will keep him sidelined for a couple weeks it opens up Vini to take even more control of this Real Madrid offense.
One more thing, RB Leipzig conceded at least 1 goal in all 6 group stage games including 32 total shots and 6 goals just to Man City alone, a team that is comparable to Real Madrid in my eyes. This team goes when Vini Jr goes, and I am expecting the Los Blancos to have a very good afternoon on Tuesday with much help from #7. GL.
