Utah State vs UCLA - March Madness Betting Picks

The Matchup: No. 10 Utah State (26-7) faces No. 7 UCLA (22-10) in Lexington. Utah State’s high-powered offense (80.9 PPG, 10th in efficiency) and 3PT shooting (35.8%) led by Ian Martinez (16.8 PPG) meets UCLA’s top-20 D (65.7 PPG allowed) and balanced attack (74.8 PPG) with Tyler Bilodeau (13.6 PPG). Aggies aim for an upset; Bruins lean on Mick Cronin’s tourney savvy.

Spread: Utah State +5.5 (-110, Caesars). UCLA’s 18-12-1 ATS, 10-3 as 5.5+ favorites, but Utah State’s 15-15 ATS includes a 6-3 run in last 9. Aggies’ 19-2 when scoring 75+ and top-10 3PT% could exploit UCLA’s 167th-ranked 3PT defense. Take Utah State +5.5—upset vibes strong.

Player Prop: Ian Martinez O16.5 points (-115, FanDuel). Martinez averages 16.8 PPG, hit 17+ in 60% of games. UCLA’s mid-range focus leaves perimeter gaps—perfect for his 38.2% 3PT shooting.

Total: 144.5 leans OVER (-105, DraftKings). Utah State’s pace (47th in 1st-half points) and UCLA’s 52.5% effective FG% push it past. Over’s 7-3 in Aggies’ last 10.

Why Utah State Covers: Hot shooting, aggressive glass (10th in offensive rebounds), and UCLA’s Quad 1 struggles (9-8). Aggies could win outright.