UFC 298
Alexander Volkanovski ML (-125)
The big question surrounding this title fight is can Topuria end Volkanovskis dystany at featherlight. Volk has won 23 straight fights and defended his belt five times at 145. He will try and do it again for his 6th title defense this Saturday night in Anaheim.
Ilia Topuria has been exceptional during his short time in the UFC, holding a 14-0 record with 4 finishes including 3 in his L4 fights by submission or KO/TKO. But there are levels to the fight game. Although 14-0, Topuria hasn’t faced the toughest competition, with notable wins over Josh Emmett, Bryce Mitchell, Jai Herbert, Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson and Youssef Zalal. A few household names but nothing to praise about. I understand he just fights who Dana puts in front of him but still these names don’t make me think he can beat the featherweight GOAT even if he is 14-0.
Volkanovskis run to the top of the featherweight division has been nothing short of amazing. During his time at the top he has beat Max Holloway 3x, Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, The Korean Zombie, and Yair Rodriguez. Volk has run through the featherweight hall of famers in the past five years.
When Volk faced Yair Rodriguez on 7/8/23 everyone was saying the same thing they are saying about Topuria. “He’s going to upset Volk”, “he’s dangerous” and a bunch of other bs but at the end of the day no one has been able to touch Volkanovski for the past 5 years and I don’t see it happening this weekend. Volk demolished Yair in that fight, he landed 75% of strikes, 68% of significant strikes, and was 7/12 takedowns. Yair also didn’t even attempt a single takedown, had 95 less strike and 17 less significant strikes before getting KO/TKO in the 3rd round.
The only advantage I see Topuria having on Volk is his age, he is just 27, 8 years younger than Volk at 35. Father time is undefeated, and Volk is coming off a first round TKO against Islam at lightweight. I like to think that doesn’t hold any weight, but it was the first time Volk has been finished since 2013. This is a new fight, in his natural weight class at 145 and I think he bounces back to silence the haters.
If Volk was a heavier favorite (-200 or less) I would probably lay off this fight because there is a legit chance that Tuporia could win, but the fact that this is almost a pick’em I can’t. There is no way I can go against Volks sheer dominance at 145, against a tough opponent in Topuria but he hasn’t been tested. Give me the veteran and greatest feather weight to ever step into the ring Saturday night. Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski. GL.
