UCL x CBB
Harry Kane & Mbappe 1+ shot on goal/Tennessee ML (-130)
Lengthy parlay this afternoon into tonight between PSG/Real Sociedad and Lazio/Bayern Munich in the Champions League and Tennessee in college basketball.
Starting with the soccer portion of the parlay and Kylian Mbappe. In the L5 matches Mbappe has a combined 22 shots, 14 on goal and 5 goals. Mbappe has a shot on target in 9 straight Ligue 1 games dating back to 11/3/23 and a shot on target in 17 of the L19 Ligue 1 games. Mbappes volume has been insane during Ligue 1 play, averaging 4.7 shots, 2.15 shots on target and 1.05 goals per game (19 games total, started 18 subbed 1).
It’s not only Ligue 1 play that Mbappe has dominated, he has done numbers in the 6 group stage Champions League games as well. In 6 UCL games this season he has a combined 22 shots, 9 on goal and 3 goals. Averaging 3.6 shots per game, 1.5 shots on target per game and 0.5 goals per game in the 23/24 Champions League. This PSG team goes when Mbappe goes and although playing against a stout Real Sociedad team that allows just 0.91 goals per game I think he will have a couple chances to see the back of the net.
Onto the second leg of this parlay and that’s Harry Kane. Similar to Mbappe Kanes production and volume is just too good to pass up on in a game of this magnitude. Despite struggling lately (a shot on goal in just 3 of the L5 games) Kane has been rock solid all season, averaging 3.8 shots per game, 1.85 shots on target and 1.14 goals per game in the Bundesliga.
Kane also has at least 1 shot on target in 17 of 21 Bundesliga games and 27 shots on target in the L13 games. Kanes UCL group stage stats are impeccable as well with a combined 16 shots, 9 on goal and 4 goals in 6 games. Averages of 2.6 shots per game, 1.5 on target and 0.6 goals per game. I like Kane to help Bayern bounce back after a 0-3 loss against Leverkusen this past weekend.
Lastly, onto the basketball leg of this parlay, the Tennessee Volunteers. I don’t love Tennesse as a team, and by that I mean they aren’t a wagon like UConn or Purdue. They will most likely be a 2 or 3 seed in March if they can escape the gauntlet of a schedule, they have for their final 4 games of the season.
My main reasoning for adding them as the last leg tonight is because Arkansas is not a great basketball team this year. At just 12-11 on the season, just 3-7 in their L10 games and losers of 4 of the L6 games the Razorbacks have collapsed. Averaging just 67 PPG and allowing 79 PPG during that 10 game stretch they will struggle against an elite Tennessee offense. Tennessee is averaging 79.5 PPG and has scored 80+ in 14 of 22 games this season and in 8 of the L11 games. Since the back-to-back-to-back losses (that’s 3 losses) against Purdue, Kansas and North Carolina, Tennessee has gone 13-3 with wins over #20 Illinois, #22 Ole Miss, Floridia, Alabama and #10 Kentucky.
During that 16-game stretch where Tennessee is 13-3, they have an average win margin of 17.3 PPG and averaging 81.9 PPG. Lastly, Tennessee’s offense is carried by Dalton Knight averaging 20.3 PPG, but they have 7 other players that can contribute as well. Aside from Knights 20+ Tennessee has 4 other starters averaging 11.3 PPG, 9 PPG, 7.6 PPG, ad 11 PPG. As well as 3 guys off the bench averaging a combined 17.1 PPG. This Tennessee offense is one of the elites in the league and I expect them to keep rolling tonight against a weak Arkansas squad. GL.
