Phillies/Braves

First 5 UNDER 4.5 (-135)

Backing the under between the Phils and the Braves tonight in what is one of my favorite bets of the week. Soccer is usually my thing, but I feel this has fallen in my lap and I really hope I don’t jinx it (score will probably be 5-5 after the first).

Although each pitcher has just one start against the opposing team it is still promising. In the one start Wheeler has against the Braves he went 6 innings, gave up 0 runs, 5 strikeouts, 0 walks and 5 hits. One of Wheelers best starts of the year. As for Lopez he went 6 innings, allowing 2 hits, 0 runs, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts. Like I said super small sample size (just 6 innings each) but the results were very good.

Besides Wheelers fluke outing against the Yankees where he allowed 7 ER, he has been lights out since mid-June. Allowing an average of 0.88 runs per start and a total of 9 runs through 56.2 innings. Lopez has carried his weight as well allowing a total of 24 ER through 104.2 innings (avg 0.23 runs per inning). He also has allowed just 13 ER through his L47.1 innings.

There is nothing bad I can say about either of these pitchers, they both have been amazing all year and I feel more than comfortable backing them to have another successful outing.

The main story with this game is the Phillies starters verse the Braves backups. Atlanta has 6 guys in tonight’s lineup that were in the opening day lineup. I know that may seem pretty good but the three guys they are missing Acuna, Albies and Riley. The 1, 2 and 3 hitters in that opening day game. Sucks for the Braves but great for the under to be missing arguably their top three hitters. Writing this up at 4:35 EST and as of now there is no Phillies lineup, but I am expecting them to bring the calvary as this is a must win series for them in terms of the division and to hold the top spot in the league. Regardless of who Philly starts I am confident in Lopez to give his best attempt to shut them down.

I am tempted to also bet Phillies ML, but I think I am going to lay off due to how good Lopez has been against them and overall, this season. I know the lineup disparity is big but pitching always prevails.

My reasoning for taking the first 5 inning total instead of the full game is because when Wheeler made his only start against Atlanta on 3/29, he gave up 0 runs through 6 innings but then the Philly bullpen allowed 2 runs in the 7th and 7 runs in the 8th. Lopez on the other hand has had a history of not pitching too deep into games this season with an average of 5.21 innings per start. I don’t want to put my faith in the bullpens which can be hit or miss.

Let’s hope both pitchers have no hitters going into the 6th inning. GL.