Super Bowl LVIII
49ers ML (-125)
The Super Bowl is finally here, and although I was hoping for a Ravens/Lions matchup this one shouldn’t disappoint. Let’s break this down.
As you can see, I am backing Purdy and the 49ers to take this one home. Just like the majority of recent Super Bowl games this one is a coinflip and you could really make a case for either team but, I think San Fransisco is the better overall talent and that is what will propel them to a victory Sunday night.
When digging into this game everything points to Kansas City as an underdog. They have the edge in QB play with Mahomes over Purdy, they are in better form, winning their L5 games by a combined 38 points, their defense has played lights out in the playoffs (allowing just 7 and 10 points to Miami and Baltimore) and you could argue that San Fran shouldn’t even be in Vegas after almost losing to both Green Bay and Detroit. Putting all that stuff aside there are some areas where I think the 49ers can exploit the Chiefs defense.
KC allowed Lamar to throw for 272 yards (7.4 YPA) while completing just 54% of his passes, if he is just a little more accurate, he goes for 300+ easily. Next, for how good Sneed has been in all year and in the playoffs, he let Zay Flowers 115 receiving yards and a TD (should have been 2 TDs) on 5 catches. Lastly, although the Ravens completely failed game plan wise and aborted the run game, they still ran for 81 yards on 16 carries (5.1 YPC) an area that San Fransisco should dominate.
I think the true matchup Sunday night will be the Chiefs offense against the 49ers defense because we know San Fran can score putting up 24 against Green Bay and 34 against Detroit but they struggled to keep the defense off the field. In the divisional round Aaron Jones are for 108 yards on 18 carries (6 YPC) and the Lions ran for 182 yards on 29 carries (6.3 YPC). The Lions also added 273 passing yards, 87 receiving yards from ST. Brown and 97 from Leporta, Shanahan will have to keep Kelce and Rice under control, or this could get ugly.
Lastly, I think the area that the 49ers will be able to exploit is the run game with McCaffery. During both the regular season and the playoffs, the Chiefs are allowing 113 rush yards per game and will now have to try and contain the 49ers who have averaged 140 per game in the regular season and 133 in the post season. McCaffery has rushed for 90+ yards in 8 of the L10 games including the playoffs, I think the Niners best bet Sunday is to pound the rock and keep Mahomes off the field.
We’ve seen time and time again the offense for KC comes out hot in the first half and stalls out in the second failing to score any points. Happened against the Bears (34 in the 1st half, 7 in the 2nd), against the Jets (20 in the 1st half, 3 in the 2nd), against the Chargers (24 in the 1st, 7 in the 2nd), against the Dolphins (21 in the 1st, 0 in the 2nd), against the Eagles (17 in the 1st, 0 in the 2nd), and most recently against the Ravens (17 in the 1st, 0 in the second). I am backing 49ers full game but if you are nervous, I think 49ers 2nd half is another angle you can play. Should be a great game, will have another article with player props coming this weekend. GL.
